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近日西澳到底有没有飓风?
发表日期:2020-1-6 9:01:45 “有一点墨”公众号

这两天关于西澳飓风的消息不绝于耳,有挖掘历史飓风数据的人,有分析近期西澳天气预报的。老墨也忍不住去扒拉了下澳大利亚政府气象局都热带气旋珀斯预警中心的资料。

根据澳大利亚气象局官网的信息显示,金伯利西北部目前处于热带低气压状态,预计周一或周二晚其将发展成热带气旋。原文为:A tropical low lies northwest of the Kimberley, and is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone late Monday or Tuesday.

更具体的描述是这样的:

“金伯利西北部的季风槽形成了热带低气压。预计它将在与金伯利海岸平行的西南西南缓慢移动,并在周一或周二晚些时候达到热带气旋强度。此时,它可能位于布鲁姆以西。从长远来看,预计它将继续向西南向皮尔巴拉海岸移动。” 原文为:A tropical low has formed in the monsoon trough northwest of the Kimberley. It is expected to move slowly south southwest parallel to the Kimberley coast and strengthen reaching tropical cyclone intensity late Monday or Tuesday. At this time it could be just west of Broome. In the longer term it is expected to continue moving southwest towards the Pilbara coast.

这一天气状况预计有啥变化或危害呢?澳大利亚气象局的官网继续表示,预计周日在金伯利西部海岸附近将出现强降雨和强风,并将持续到周一。原文为:(Hazards 危害性)Heavy rainfall and strong winds are expected to develop near the west Kimberley coast during Sunday and continue into Monday.

根据澳大利亚气象局的进一步预测认为:该热带低气压(02U)开始在季风槽中形成,估计是在WST今天上午8点在布鲁姆西北西北约750公里处。未来几天,热带低气压可能会逐渐增强,预计在星期一或星期二将成为热带气旋。原文为:A tropical low (02U) is starting to form in the monsoon trough and is estimated to be about 750km north northwest of Broome at 8am WST this morning. The tropical low is likely to slowly strengthen over the next few days and is forecast to become a tropical cyclone on Monday or Tuesday.

预计在今天的其余时间里,它的运动通常会在东南方向进行,到周日凌晨,它将从金伯利(Kimberley)西部海岸离岸,可能会带来更多的降雨和强风。从星期天晚些时候到星期一,该系统预计将转向西南西南部,从而朝着皮尔巴拉海岸的东部和中部方向发展。到星期二,该系统很有可能发展成为热带气旋,并可能从星期二开始进行沿海穿越。原文为:It's motion is forecast to be generally southeast during the remainder of today, taking it just offshore from the west Kimberley coast by early Sunday where it is likely to bring increased rainfall and strong winds. From later Sunday into Monday, the system is expected to turn to the south southwest, which takes it on a direction towards eastern and central parts of the Pilbara coast. By Tuesday, there is a high chance the system has developed into a tropical cyclone with a coastal crossing possible from Tuesday onwards.

基于此,看来老铁们还得密切关注这个目前不构成威胁的热带低压的未来走势。但如果按照澳大利亚气象局的预测路径来看,下周二该热带低压很可能抵达黑德兰港,而且会演变成热带气旋。

飓风目前还看不到会形成的迹象,让我们再等几天看看!

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